New push for the government and the MSM

The Chief Justice Mr. Keshoe Parsad Matadeen and Judge Mr. Asraf Caunhye have, on Wednesday, quashed the judgment that was delivered by Magistrates Niroshini Ramsoondar, Acting V President of the Intermediate Court and M.I. Azam Neerooa, Magistrate, Intermediate Court on June 30,2016. The judgment delivered on Wednesday has not only set a precedent in law but it has also triggered a series of high level political decisions. No sooner had the judgment by the Supreme Court been announced than the Prime Minister Sir Anerood Jugnauth officially informed the President of the Republic Mrs. Ameenah Gurib-Fakim that he had decided to appoint Mr. Pravind Jugnauth as Minister of Finance and Economic Development. On Thursday morning, Mr. Pravind Jugnauth was sworn in as Minister of Finance at the State House, Réduit and he will stage his comeback in the cabinet of ministers on Friday. Meanwhile, he has already resumed his seat on the front bench of the majority at the National Assembly. The Prime Minister who was participating in the opening ceremony of an international congress on ophthalmology at the Sugar Beach Hotel told the media that the presentation of the Budget, which was scheduled on Monday 6 June, 2016 had been postponed to a later date, in a bid to give more time to the new Minister of Finance to consult stakeholders and complete the preparation of the Budget.

PREDICTABLE SCENARIO

We would like to humbly recall that we had predicted this scenario on March 17, 2016. “Sir Anerood Jugnauth chose to keep the Ministry of Finance with him although rumours were rife that Mr. Bhadain would be given the portfolio. In fact, those close to Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo were accusing Mr. Bhadain of trying to snatch away this Ministry from Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo. Replying to a question from the press on Monday, the Prime Minister did confirm that he had thought of appointing Mr. Bhadain as Minister of Finance but he them opted to keep the Ministry for himself,” we had written in Political Roundup. We had then added that “(…) In doing so, Sir Anerood Jugnauth has split the difference and therefore reduced the appetite of Mr. Bhadain and cut short any bad feeling from Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo. But more importantly, this scenario looks more like one preparing the grand comeback of the Leader of the Mouvement Socialiste Militant (MSM) Mr. Pravind Jugnauth in the event that he wins his appeal against the judgment in the MedPoint case. Although Sir Anerood Jugnauth rightly stated that he cannot predict what will happen in this case, it seems more likely that Mr. Pravind Jugnauth will step in as Minister of Finance once he clears his name. Another small cabinet reshuffle could take place but a more profound one should be expected in case phase two of the plan is implemented, that is in the event that Mr. Pravind Jugnauth takes over as Prime Minister(…)”.

“ Call it a coincidence or a mere sequence of political happenings: Mr. Pravind Jugnauth has been appointed Minister of Finance on three occasions and by three different Prime Ministers, namely Mr. Paul Bérenger (2003), Dr. Navin Ramgoolam (2010) and Sir Anerood Jugnauth (2016). "

We had concluded this part of the weekly political analysis as follows: “In reply to questions from the press, Sir Anerood Jugnauth has stated in no uncertain terms that he will participate in the pre-Budget consultations and that he will not postpone the presentation of the Budget 2017, but it looks very unlikely that things will happen this way. Who knows that Mr. Pravind Jugnauth could present the next Budget in case he wins his appeal and is roped in again in the cabinet of Ministers? It looks very unlikely that Sir Anerood Jugnauth will present the next Budget. If he does, he will have to rely not only on the team at the Ministry of Finance but also on some of his ministers, like Mr. Bhadain(…)”.

CHALLENGES AWAITING PRAVIND JUGNAUTH

Winning his appeal against the judgment that had found him guilty of charge is a personal satisfaction for Mr. Pravind Jugnauth and his family. As rightly pointed out by his wife Mrs Kobita Jugnauth, the ordeal had lasted for some five years and had been quite painful for the family. Also his legal defense had made the right choice when it opted for an appeal which had its risks, both legal and political. None other than Mr. Pravind Jugnauth himself had already prepared himself for the worst case scenario. He had stated that he is not indispensable and that he was ready to take the necessary decisions depending on the circumstances. Some of his opponents were even anticipating a by-election in his constituency (No8 Moka/Quartier Militaire). We wonder whether some within his own circle of friends were not wishing that he loses the appeal. Otherwise an old-timer like Mr.Paul Bérenger would have never made the following comment at the National Assembly: “Au fond, to pas kontan ditou” (Deep down, you are not happy at all). These enigmatic comments were directed at the Government Chief Whip Mr. Mahen Jhugroo. This could no doubt constitute the main challenge that awaits Mr. Pravind Jugnauth: that of carefully choosing his close collaborators. Crossing the desert has undoubtedly been extremely painful for him, but it must have taught him a few lessons in politics and in life at large. His acquittal is tantamount to a new impetus to the Lepep Alliance government which looked until recently like a boat in troubled waters. First politically, the situation was quite unbearable with the leader of the party having the highest number of MPs (the Mouvement Socialiste Militant) being out of the government. Second, several cases (that Mr. Raj Dayal and the one involving Mr. Vishnu Lutchjmeenaraidoo, and the various issues pertaining to political nominations and taking advantage of being close to power) have considerably weakened the government. Third, it looked like the government could not have an economic direction although several laudable initiatives were taken like the presentation of VISION 2030 by the Prime Minister. Mr. Pravind Jugnauth has a herculean task awaiting him and time is of essence. The Chief Executive officer of Business Mauritius Mr. Raj Makoond has in a statement given to Le Defi Quotidien (Thursday 25 May ,2016) summed up perfectly the expectations, that of making Mauritius take the leap forward from an intermediate economy to a high revenue economy.

TRIAL AND ERROR

Ever since it came to power, the Lepep Alliance has indulged in a trial and error exercise on the socio-economic front. For instance, Mr. Lutchmeenaraidoo’s Budget laid lot of emphasis on new smart cities. Later, the Prime Minister suddenly discovered that we should not confuse property speculation with economic development, something on which we had debated earlier. Also, the Lepep government brushed aside the light railway project unilaterally, to later find that an alternative mode of public transport is complementary to the Road Decongestion Programme. Interestingly enough, Mr. Pravind Jugnauth seems to pick up from where he had left in July 2011, over the MedPoint case. The MSM had preferred to quit the Ramgoolam-led government following serious disagreements on this matter. At that time, he was serving as Minister of Finance. Despite the fact that he briefly served as Minister of Technology, Communication and Innovation from December 2014 to July,2015, this period looked more like a transitional one as he later resigned from this post soon after the June 30, 2015 judgment was delivered. Call it a coincidence or a mere sequence of political happenings: Mr. Pravind Jugnauth has been appointed Minister of Finance on three occasions and by three different Prime Ministers, namely Mr. Paul Bérenger (2003), Dr. Navin Ramgoolam (2010) and Sir Anerood Jugnauth (2016). Few persons will recall that he served briefly as Leader of Opposition from September 2014 to December 2014. This new political situation will certainly give rise to readjustments in the strategy of opposition parties. There is only one step left for Mr.Pravind Jugnauth to reach the post of Prime Minister. One of the basic axioms of politics here has been the leader-centered parties and their dynastical consequences. It is obvious that whether you “viré mam” (let us change pal) or not, you unconsciously participate in perpetrating the tradition. Until and unless, the real change takes place…